Federal Bankruptcy?

Trump presided over bankruptcies in the past, and I see no reason to assume he will change colors overnight. Trump plans to do the classical Republican shenanigans: cut taxes while at the same time increasing spending. It is just like if I decided to quit working and just live off my credit card, while dining out every night and buying a couple new cars. That is the easy way to spur economic growth. Trump loves easy fixes. Who cares about the future? Enjoy today. That is the Republican way. Reagan did it first, then Bush, and now Trump. All of them getting high at the wheel as the ship gets progressively loaded down with debt. What is it now, over twenty trillion? Remember, Trump wants to spend more on defense, not less. That means more new planes, tanks, and ships, all of which we apparently need in order to keep China in check.

Meanwhile, Trump antagonizes our chief debt holder, China. For better or worse, China holds our national debt. If tensions rise between the two nations, as we have every reason to expect they will, the United States may default on its national debt for the first time in modern history. Now, Trump has defaulted many a time before, and this would be in character. What will happen is that no one will want to buy U.S. bonds, and anyone holding them is going to be holding Monopoly money. That would include retirees, dear old grandma and the like. There will be a lot of collateral damage, and suddenly the U.S. will have no way to meet obligations such as Social Security and so forth. There will be unhappy people gathering in the streets.

Trump may be cunning, but he is not half as smart as he thinks he is, and he is going to find that global politics is a lot tougher than it seemed at first. There is a reason that Putin backed Trump, and that reason is not to help America or the American people.

Predictions: the federal minimum wage stays the same or is abolished altogether. 2017 inflation rate of 3.5%, 2018 inflation rate of 7%, 2019 inflation rate of 11%, and 2020 inflation rate of 14%. Bonds look like a poor investment right now. Pollution gets worse. The capital spending that Trump envisions will not actually improve anything in the country. He is going to build a wall and spend more on military gadgets for overseas adventures. Spending on scientific research will stagnate, with the one exception of weapons research. The infrastructure will remain as it is, although prison building will expand and become increasingly privatized. Marijuana will become illegal again nationwide, if Trump's Attorney General has his way. Trump is going to put a lot more people in prison as part of the traditional Republican "tough on crime" thing. Most of the new people in prison will be for non-violent offenses like marijuana. The largest per capita prison population in the world is just going to get larger and may even double. The Trump Presidency will be all about culture wars, stocking the Supreme Court with right-wingers, and expanding the military and doing a lot of bombing missions against third world nations to show everybody that Trump stands tall. There probably is going to be some hot fire traded between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea as well, and then an unexpected peace mission resulting in symbolic, empty "concessions" from China that make Trump look good while changing nothing. Trump is all about appearances. All he wants is to look good in the moment. If a world leader understands that, as Putin does, then it is easy to deal with Trump. Give America nothing but a kick in the teeth, but lie and agree with Trump and say the things that make him look good. That is all you have to do with Trump.