Occam's Razor

In the recent Russian nerve agent assassination, Occam's Razor indicates Russia is culpable. The nerve agent was manufactured by Russia and is only known to exist in Russia. Putin is a liar; to lie is nothing to him. Putin controls Russia as a de facto dictator. Putin wanted the ex-spy living in London to die of spectacular and macabre symptoms. Thus, the simplest, and therefore most likely, scenario is Putin ordered the poisoning. Any other theory relies upon further complexity and far-fetched possibilities. All the lies being generated by the Russian state may be ignored without further consideration. Russia can be assumed guilty, under any circumstances, until proven innocent, because Russia under Putin is evil.

Putin is playing with fire, skirting along the edge of war. The fool may miscalculate at some point, to his peril. It is unfortunate that the rest of us have to live on the same planet as Putin. He is in a similar category as Hitler and Stalin, his two heroes. That such a fool is in charge of a nuclear-armed state is a big reason to be pessimistic about the future of H. Sapiens. The odds that H. Sapiens will survive the nuclear age are about one in a million.