Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Friday, March 30, 2012

Homo Sapiens 2.0

The temporary and precarious nature of our existence sometimes disturbs me and makes me fear for the people I care about, but for myself, I am not so worried. I suppose it would be unfortunate to be deprived of additional pleasure and fulfillment, but I have already had more than my share, I think, particularly when one considers the sometimes abbreviated, often more difficult lives of those ancients who had more talent and contributed more to the world than I did. Just to name one instance, Shakespeare did not live past the age of fifty, I believe, and certainly many of my acquaintances have already exceeded his span, and it is likely his life was more difficult due to the times he lived in.

We are fortunate to be human, compared to say squirrel or cat, but being human does carry with it the curse of mortality, impermanence. Perhaps one day scientists will develop Homo Sapiens 2.0.

My vision of Homo Sapiens 2.0 stores our identity in bits and bytes upon a computer system. In the first place, I realize it is very controversial to propose that a human personality can be broken down into bits and bytes and stored on a computer. I believe that it can, that there is nothing to our psychology that cannot be translated into software. If I like something, I like it to a degree that can be quantified on a scale from one to a hundred, and if I dislike something, that dislike can also be quantified, and rules and provisions can be established that further refine my likes and dislikes. All of this should be immediately apparent to anyone who has ever programmed a computer. It is the non-programmers who tend to think that computers will never simulate human beings. I would never make such a rash presumption. Already, computers play better chess than human beings, and they do many other things better than we do as well. In time, artificial intelligence will eclipse our own native intelligence, and then it will be a simple matter to simulate our little personalities.

However, in order to interact with each other and with the physical environment, I think it will always be useful to spawn organic clones that are robust yet replaceable in the event of injury or death. We will, each or some of us, spawn clones to get things done, but when these clones die it will be of little or no concern to the entity that dwells in safety and redundancy on a computer system.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Friday, March 23, 2012

Good Times?

I have a funny feeling that these years we are living through will be remembered as the good years--maybe even the best, although for my money the 1990s were the best for me from the perspectives of health and wealth.

The environment seems like an important issue simmering on the back burner, ignored altogether by Republicans. What if the weather turns really bad and stays really bad for a long period of time? I suppose that those of us alive today will be glad that we were alive today and look back upon this time as a good one.


Sunday, February 19, 2012

We're Lucky to be Human

I look at my cat sometimes and think that I read envy. We are so powerful, compared to them. The things that we do, such as having mastery over sound, images, smells, light and darkness, often seem like magic to their eyes. In some ways, we seem god-like.

I think every human is lucky to be human, because humans rule the Earth. We are even seeking to acquire the Moon and the other planets. Unsatisfied with our blessed estate, we even seek to conquer mortality itself and live forever. Humans have always been unsatisfied. That may be the one curse to intelligence. We always crave more. We always seek to modify our environment in order to enjoy a better standard of living. Cats don't strive. They may seek a more comfortable cushion, but they build nothing and they gather nothing except the occasional toy.

So the human being is fortunate, but does not know that he is fortunate. He is the luckiest form of life, enjoying a self-awareness greater than any other life form. He is the flower of creation. It should be our lot to create beautiful things with art and music. I think that is the ultimate direction. There are more beautiful things as the human race matures and grows more powerful. There are more possibilities.

Our existence is changing, our environment is changing far faster than our genes. We have left behind the conditions that made our physical traits expedient. Modern people spend hours in a seated position. Little musculature is required in today's world. The car takes us places, not the feet. Almost all but the easiest physical labor is performed by machines. Even talking is often unnecessary due to electronic communication. The body is really more of a hindrance than an aid. We would be better-suited to the modern world without a body. It is unnecessary; we could be happier and more permanent as a collection of bits and bytes within a computer.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Friday, February 3, 2012

Iran

Once Iran obtains an atom bomb, it is only a matter of time before it is used. Those who believe that Iran will show the same restraint as the U.S. and Russia are kidding themselves.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Iran

I don't shed any tears for the slain Iranian nuclear scientists. In fact, my reaction is right on! Iran is a center for terrorism and fascism on Earth. Iranian leaders are savages. I think that Israel has the right to do everything within their power to reduce Iran.

Certainly the world would be a better place without Iran's tyrannical regime. The only thing Iran ever does is torture, imprison and kill good people, and assist terrorists and dictators like Assad and their own dictator. Iran is the embodiment of evil on earth.

This is one area where I do sympathize a bit with the Republican front-runners. However, I'm not sure. I have doubts that probably never occur to Republicans. My main issue is cost. Can Iran be reduced at low cost, or will it mean another trillion dollars gone?

It may become necessary to nuke Iran in order to prevent nuclear terrorism. The ultimate source of Iranian nuclear scientists is the Iranian people. Why pick off one nuclear scientist at a time, when you can eliminate the source?
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Syria

The Syrian regime is really horrible and there are no two ways about that. The stories I read in the media leave me with the impression that Syria is run mafia-style by a bunch of bandits, and Assad is their chieftain. Possibly the Alawites were in ancient history a tribe of bandits. At any rate, they are now. Their relationship with the rest of their neighbors has certainly changed for the worse, and I think they are going to have difficult times in the future no matter what happens to their regime, whether it survives or not.

All that said, I find it difficult to get enthusiastic about intervening in Syria. We already did our usual number in Libya, and I don't see the Libyans clamoring to pay for any of the costs of the intervention. Mercenary armies traditionally have been paid for their services. We get paid nothing. Iraq's gratitude is laughable. How Iraq turns out remains to be seen. I find it difficult to have much hope for Afghanistan either. The trouble is with the people. They are not like us. They are not educated. They are extremely superstitious. They don't share Western-style values. Eventually a strong man always arises among those people. They have not had a republic in a thousand years. Where is their Thomas Jefferson, their James Madison, their George Washington? Once we leave, then they will revert to their old ways in time. That's my prediction. We are regarded as aliens, intruders, foreigners.

Russia supplied more arms to the detested Syrian regime recently. I imagine the Russians rationalize things this way. The whole Middle East, with the exception of Israel and maybe Turkey, is just a bunch of authoritarian regimes. The dust hasn't settled in Egypt and Libya and other countries yet. Torture and executions for spurious reasons are fairly commonplace throughout the Middle East. So if the regime falls in Syria, then Syria may become more efficient. It may become wealthier. But freedom? Civil rights? That's difficult to imagine. What Russia really fears is the Arabs coalescing into a coherent union, like the EU. They like the Syrian regime because it plays ball with them and does favors for them and keeps the Sunni majority in line.

For all the talk in the media about a civil war in Syria, I think the regime is going to endure and survive. It will be a little bit weaker, but it will survive just as the Iranian regime survived the turmoil of 2011. Iran and Syria have far too many ignorant and violent thugs that are in possession of gold and guns. I think that any ethical person in those countries does not really have much hope to lead a productive life, because to do so would be to serve as a tool of an unethical regime, which would be a violation of ethics. Eventually an ethical person would run afoul of the regime. Those two countries, Iran and Syria, will be bastions of violence and ignorance for generations to come.

It is depressing to think of Iran with nuclear bombs. The U.S. is not really in a position economically to begin another war, thanks to Bush's blunders, and all signs point to our steering clear of military conflict. I think what will really happen is that, if Iran hurts anybody with a nuclear weapon, then all life will be annihilated within Iran and possibly their neighbors and all of their allies. It will not be Mutual Assured Destruction, but Assured Destruction at any rate. That is why China and Russia don't care whether Iran gets bombs. Both of those countries already have sufficient deterrent. They assume that the Iranian leadership is not insane. Whether that is a safe assumption remains to be seen.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Fascists Vs. Freedom Fighters

Reading the news tonight, all around the world, the fascists are killing and harming freedom fighters, whether in Egypt, Syria, or the U.S. of A.

But I've got a feeling in my little pinkie finger that in the end, freedom wins. Because fascism is stifling & sterile. It isn't any fun at all. It's anti-human. Eventually even the fascists come to realize that. It just takes them more time. They have to suffer a great deal. They have to feel pain. Fascists are like animals in that way. The only thing they understand is pure physical animal pain. But they will learn, because Karma is a teacher that is willing to accommodate their special needs.

In the final analysis, a robot would be the perfect fascist, because it has no conscience, but only a human being would be the perfect freedom fighter.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Iran

It will become necessary to retaliate against Iran in the future. It would be convenient and simple to do so while occupying Iran's neighbors.

At that point, whoever is the U.S. President should authorize a strike against all of the law enforcement, military, nuke, space, and rocket infrastructure, which may take a period of six months of continual bombing. In order to be effective, environmental catastrophes must be created to ensure that limits are placed upon reconstruction and future human habitation in those regions. In other words, in order to rebuild, Iran will have to start over completely at a new site, rather than repairing a few buildings at an old.

This remedy may be repeated as necessary, with diminishing accuracy, until Iran pays the debt for U.S. military expenditures from 2001 - present, along with all of the interest accrued.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Understanding Technology

Qubits are being studied in research into quantum computing.

I can't help but think of Q-bert, a popular video game from the 1980's.

I have only a vague notion of what the research really means or how it works, but it does sound most impressive. I have difficulty understanding what is meant by a bit that can be both zero and one at the same time. Does that mean it has three possible values, rather than two, and the speed increase derives from increased capacity or bandwidth? Or would there be five possibilities: 1, 0, 00, 10, or 01? I don't really understand a single thing about quantum mechanics, insofar as why it works. I can almost grasp how it works, but not why.

As far as I'm concerned, electricity is magic. I've never understood electricity in a proper way. The inner workings of personal computers also seem like magic.

I suppose it is possible, if written and recorded documents were lost in an Apocalypse, such as after a nuke attack or comet strike, that much technology could also disappear, because many people don't really have a good idea as to how their gadgets work and could not begin to recreate them, especially without preexisting tools and other supplies. It is easy to understand and recreate such things as a cart, a wagon, and even a saddle from easily obtained natural resources, but to build a car and the infrastructure to support it and its fuel, that would be quite a trick for an ordinary person left to his own devices. The only guarantee we have is about the Renaissance level of technology. Hopefully, though, there will always be a cache of technological information stored somewhere in a computer disk or a book.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Great Thoughts from an Oxford University Scholar

Some of the "scholars" at Oxford University could not reason their way out of a paper bag. If they represent the best in Western Civilization, then brother, we're in trouble. Deep, deep trouble. Today I read an editorial by some Oxford academic who wants to electrocute animal-f*ckers. That is what he is spending all of his time studying, that is what he is applying his scholarly brain upon, animal-f*ckers.

Whatever happened to the days when Tolkien & Co. were writing masterpieces? Where's the brains? Oxford University appears to be brain-dead. Sitting in their ivory tower, what are they studying? Anything important?

Animal-f*ckers.

How much grant money supports that research, I'd like to know.

I think there are more important issues in the world than animal-f*ckers and more important things to be concerned about.

Sometimes I have the distinct impression that nothing will ever be done about global warming, and that future generations are just going to have to accept everything that Mother Nature throws at them. It doesn't seem quite fair that the children of tomorrow will be punished for the misbehavior of today's overgrown kids, but that's just the way things are going to work. The people running the show these days are just plain stupid, no two ways about it, or if they have a lick of sense, then they're out to get what they can while they can and not terribly concerned about much else. But then, what else is new? A perusal of history shows that the monarchs of yesteryear were not so hot, either.

Good government is exceptional. It almost never happens. And when by some stroke of luck a good leader does arrive, nine times out of ten, he is assassinated.

Too bad there's no God. We really could use one. An interventionist God would be ideal. I think people want to believe in one because the alternative, reality, is not very comforting.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Don't want $12,333 ?

$12,333 per American.

That will be the cost of the wars by the time they are over, according to a Brown University study.

I arrived at the above figure by dividing 3.7 trillion by the approximate U.S. population of 300 million.

I don't know about you, but I could sure use twelve grand right about now. Instead, it's our debt, and we're paying interest on it--or rather your children will be.

I'm not sure now is such a good time to have children. The country they inherit will almost certainly be a weaker and poorer one. In retrospect, I'm glad I did not have any.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Friday, September 30, 2011

Iran Can Pay the U.S. Eleven Trillion

One of these days, the U.S. President, whoever he might be, will tire of fighting Iran by proxy in Iraq and Afghanistan, and will deliver a note of demand to Iran's regime. Iran will be required to pay the U.S. eleven trillion dollars, erasing our national debt.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Iranian Regime Wants Us to Hate Them

Iran's leaders learned nothing from the hostage crisis of the '70s, the one that sank Carter's Presidency, with the consequence that Reagan ruled the U.S. for the next eight years.

Looking at the photo of the three American hikers, all I can think of as how thin they are, malnourished by the torturers of Iran's regime. It makes me angry and hateful toward Iran. So, the end result of Iran's gambit with three innocent American civilians is that now ordinary Americans are much more willing and eager to do harm to Iran.

Some people never learn. I mean, they never learn.

With the U.S. economy going down the tubes, and so many American unemployed, it might be easy for a populist to gain the highest office, and you know what, a country the size of Iran with Iran's natural resources could eliminate our debt in a number of ways that would be highly unpleasant for Iranians. I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, but it is a possibility, now, isn't it? Iran plays a game of Russian Roulette, but there's no winner in that game.

I can hardly restrain the bile I feel toward Iran, one of the least lovable countries in the world (I would say least lovable if not for North Korea). They are really determined to do evil in the world.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Obama Will Win Re-Election in 2012

It's not that the Republicans don't have electable candidates. They do. Not one, but three: Buddy Roemer, Ron Paul, and Jon Huntsman, in order of electability. Due to their honesty, these three gentlemen are excluded by the G.O.P. establishment, which prefers confirmed liars and sell-outs like Romney, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, Cain and Bachman.

I saw Republican Buddy Roemer on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, and I'd vote for him. He spoke the unvarnished truth for five minutes, and I seldom hear that from a politician. I like him. I don't even know his position on all the issues, but I would definitely listen to him in a debate. I'd go out of my way to listen to him. The current crop of Republican front-runners, I would never listen to, not in a million years. They are liars, evil-doers. Put an honest man on the stage, and I will listen.

This is why the Republican party cannot win the White House. They will select an obvious sell-out.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Thursday, September 22, 2011

College Degree is Worthless

I found this article about America's Lost Generation interesting but differ with their appraisal of a college degree's value.

College degrees are worthless. Companies demand not only a degree, but ten years of RECENT experience. Otherwise, you might as well not apply. You're just wasting your time.

A high I.Q. is irrelevant. Good grades are without value. Hard work is an object of scorn. Education means nothing.

Work is not permitted in the U.S. anymore. The jobs have been outsourced to China, India, Russia, and other of our "friends".

I see no reason at all to hope for a better future. All the signs are ominous, to anyone who is paying attention.

History does provide us with a road map, however, of just how horrible things will become.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

My Favorite Politician

My favorite politician is not Obama. He doesn't lead, he follows, and he doesn't always follow the right people, either. Obama is more Republican than Democrat.

My favorite politician is Gorbachev. He ended the Cold War, reformed the U.S.S.R., and was the answer to a personal prayer and premonition I had at the age of ten. I remember thinking about the U.S.S.R. and all of the evil associated with it and the threat of nuclear annihilation, and I felt a change was coming and that it would come within my lifetime. It was a sensation based in the heart, a feeling only, and I was not sure whether to trust it. Maybe popular music and the popular media had inspired me to feel this way. The same may have inspired Gorbachev. At any rate he has a heart, a good heart. Not many politicians, at least on the Republican side of the aisle, do.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Rioters in the U.K.

Rioters in the U.K. and the U.S. have learned from their social superiors. The bailouts taught the working classes that incompetence, greed, and wickedness are rewarded and held in high esteem. Hard work, on the other hand, is regarded as stupid and pointless. Worker's rights and worker's benefits are down. Benefits for the idle rich are up. There is less honor, less comfort, and less prestige in working for a living. What is valued is knowing the "right" people and having the "right" connections. If those two prerequisites are not possessed, then getting ahead any which way seems to them the only way left. There are not enough jobs to go around. Young people are being told, in effect, to stay at home and do nothing. Education, self-improvement and studying are held to be of no value. The young people of the U.K. have digested this unfortunate lesson. Now society smells the end product of their digestion.

I think things can get a lot worse than they are right now. I don't see many reasons to have optimism in the future. The U.S. is in long-term decline, having sacrificed its future to the half-baked notions of the Republicans. Tyrannical China is emerging as a world power and is on course to eclipse the U.S. There is no reason to have any optimism about Russia. The world will become less free and less progressive as a result, and more people will be enslaved and oppressed. Global warming will continue unchecked, with unpredictable consequences. Iran cannot be stopped, but will eventually develop nuclear weapons, not a good scenario for a country that sponsors terrorism.

Already people are looking back with nostalgia for the 1990s, that bygone, blissful era of prosperity that is not likely to return in our lifetimes. There is a greater danger of political extremism, such as was experienced in 1930s Europe, in times of prolonged economic depression.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

Friday, July 8, 2011

Vote Democratic

Republican policies under G.W. Bush smashed the economy so soundly that it couldn't be fixed in a mere two years. Obama's notable accomplishment was that the country did not slide into another Great Depression.

Republican philosophy is built around tax breaks for the rich and never-ending, financially ruinous foreign wars. The Democratic party would be even better if it were more liberal, but of the two parties, it is the better one. A Democratic Congress will pave the way toward a more robust recovery. If the Republicans lose seats in Congress in 2012, then America will gain intellectual power.

The body is strong, but the head must be as well.
by igor 04:20 4 replies by igor 09:32 0 comments

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Foreboding about the Economy

As far as technology is concerned, employers seem choosy. They don't seem willing to train or permit the employee to self-train. They are not willing to consider long-distance applicants. They are not willing to accept less than unusual combinations of experience, and in some cases expect instant results beginning on the second day. Are these expectations realistic? They might be, considering how many immigrants have been injected into the job market.

Although many job openings seem to offer high salaries ($70k+), they often require a rare combination of skills that would fit only very few Americans. It makes me think such job openings were written with a specific person from India or China in mind. Applying for such an opening is just a waste of time. There are a great many time-wasting diversions awaiting anyone who looks into the job market.

It seems strange to me that people with advanced degrees, many years of experience and a high degree of skill can remain unemployed or underemployed in menial or otherwise low-level or part-time jobs.

I prefer to be optimistic, like anyone else, and try to look on the bright side of things, but I have a foreboding about the economy. I don't think I'm the only one. I hope that matters improve, but I don't see any reason to think that they will.

One thing I am glad about is that I saved my pennies during the boom years. More than anything else, that's probably the wisest move I made. I did quite well for myself, all things considered, and saved for a rainy day. Those who did equally well during the boom years, but succumbed to the siren song of high living, new cars, expensive houses and credit cards are now suffering the most. They are experiencing a dramatic and therefore painful reversal of fortune.

I have always lived far below my means, resulting in little change, regardless of income. Who needs to spend money, when there are books to be read and things to blog about? I've always been a skeptic about everything from religion to materialism. I'm highly resistant to advertising and marketing. If something is advertised, I become suspicious. Who needs to advertise something worth having? Word of mouth alone is sufficient to market a quality product. That's the way I evaluate things.
by igor 04:20 4 replies by igor 09:32 0 comments

Monday, June 20, 2011

A Safe Bet That Nothing Will Be Done

Regarding the threat of an EMP-nuke from North Korea or Iran, it's a safe bet that nothing will be done about it. Our leaders are not forward-thinkers, but only seem capable of reacting to problems that have already arrived upon our doorstep.
by igor 04:20 4 replies by igor 09:32 0 comments
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