Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Sunday, April 23, 2017

The Failure of the Establishment


Putin-aligned governments arise in the West due to two key failures of asinine establishment governments. In a spasm of Kumbaya loving-thy-neighbor myopia, they opened up their national borders to hostile outsiders from alien cultures, inviting trouble, and neglected to take meaningful action on jobs. They had to do only two things. Close the borders and expel the Islamists by any means necessary. Stop importing cheap stuff from Asia, and start employing your own workers. It really is as simple as that. Due to the failure of the establishment to grasp these political necessities, Putin's dark star ascends.

In the final analysis, evil intelligence will triumph over good incompetence, ten times out of ten. The only reason good prevails is that is the only way that does not lead to self-destruction. Evil vanquishes itself--intelligent or not. The very nature of evil works against it.

If mankind is, on balance, evil, then the next conclusion is self-evident.

Thursday, April 13, 2017

Love Versus Despair


Do I gloat over bombs dropped, souls lost? I acknowledge the blood of my ancestors and don't fight it because I think they were right in some wise, because I am here.

What I want is universal love in the final outcome, as conflicts cease and nations unite to resolve the real problems facing mankind: global warming, disease, poverty, pollution. Kim Jong Un barks up the wrong tree, lives in the 1950s, does not live in the same time we do. Whether he goes or not is irrelevant, but he must cease disturbing geopolitics and shut the hell up. When global media cease trumpeting his nonsense, then his prognosis for continued breath improves. That is my advice for the regime of N. Korea, and I hope they don't take it.

Universal love is not such a far-fetched hippy notion; it is achievable, even now, with Putin and Xi and Trump dominating the headlines. There is yet hope.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst


I hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. I hope that the U.S. economy improves, that the world improves, that humankind enjoy peace and prosperity. In the brooding hours of the late evening, I suspect otherwise, and am reminded of the old slogan, "what fools these mortals be." Look at Syria, North Korea, Iran, China, Russia, and even our beloved United States. There are many problems, and some problems are beyond our capacity, morally and intellectually, to deal with, such as global warming. We are neither intelligent nor ethical enough, collectively, to deal with global warming. What will happen, will happen. That, I feel, is a given. Also, nuclear weapons--I think that in my lifetime, the mushroom cloud will arise once more over a major metropolitan area. It strikes me as unrealistic, given our history, to suppose that feeble Man, given a mighty weapon, will refrain, out of mere reason, or ethics, from using it. We use the tools at our disposal, all the time, for a variety of reasons, with barely a thought to the consequences; such has been our history. Thus, Earth is going to be a pretty hostile place for living creatures at some point in the future, and I see that as a given, again based upon history. To know history is to gain the ability to predict the future. Earth's end as a happy, pleasant breeding ground for humans saddens me, because good planets like this are depressingly scarce. We can't just up and move to Mars, now can we?

Saturday, March 4, 2017

To Be Old in America


Did I ever imagine, in my wildest dreams, that a United States President, a right-wing, conservative Republican at that, would play the Manchurian Candidate? No... not even while under the influence of cannabis. In their totality and simplicity, the signs are damning, to anyone that watches and listens, to anyone that is not blinded by partisan fervor. No matter the outcome, there will remain a stench of corruption around Trump's dealings with Russia. It may well fall upon patriotic conservative Republicans, of which there are many, to impeach a conservative Republican President, only for the good of the country. If his whole Administration has to go, as indeed it may, the rot extending from the roof to the floor, including Pence and all the others, then perhaps we will have Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as President.

One thing is sure. These United States cannot ally with Putin. Then we would be evil and so much worse for this poor old world.

Friday, March 3, 2017

Hypocrisy


Now that the Republicans are in power in Washington, D.C., it is plain as day they are total hypocrites. All the little things they criticized the Democrats for, they have already done. Republicans are just hypocrites that want to get their way any which way they can. "The ends justify the means"--except in this case they really don't. The Republicans are going to pile up additional debt increasing an already over-sized military and giving tax breaks to corporations, while at the same time depriving people of health care and ignoring the environment. The reason they want to expand the military is simple and clear--they want a war with Iran.

Saturday, January 28, 2017

John McWhorter @ CNN


I really liked McWhorter's piece on Trump and Chicago crime. It may be a good thing for Trump to send the Feds in to Chicago. Stop the gang violence, by martial law if necessary. Ordinary citizens have a right to live their lives without the threat of crime and violence.

I feel the same way McWhorter does about Trump: "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day." Trump spouts so many words that a man is bound to agree with some. He is like a shotgun. Yeah, a couple pellets are going to hit the mark.

Trump talks too much, for one thing, and engages his mouth more than his brain. He is not the ideal leader. He is going to make a lot of horrible and costly blunders with that angry mouth and hot head of his. The best that I hope for is that he corrects at least some of the blunders of his predecessors, and that his blunders prove to be correctable by his successor.

Due to Trump, Putin, and Xi, I do not have any hope that humanity will do anything to reverse climate change. Anyone living on the coast anywhere in the world is in for a rude shock, and those in the interior are also in for neat experiments like desertification, violent storms, flooding and violent and hungry refugees from the coast. Trump can be wrong, but ninety-nine per cent of world scientists can't be wrong.

On the other hand, is it right that the U.S. and Europe make all the sacrifices in an effort to reverse global warming, while India, China and Russia pump out maximum carbon emissions? If climate change is really inevitable anyway, and it probably is, given the geopolitical reality, then the U.S. might as well do whatever is expedient, because Russia and China represent evil in our world, and must not be permitted any advantages. Putin and Xi are evil incarnate and will never do anything that is good. If the U.S. committed suicide en masse, resulting in the elimination of all man-made carbon emissions, then China and Russia would continue with business as usual, and colonize our space and replace the lost carbon emissions with their own. Therefore, global warming is truly inevitable. It is impossible that China and Russia should cooperate with the U.S. They prefer global catastrophe and large-scale reduction of the world population to cooperation. Perhaps a reduction in global population is the real solution to global warming. There is not as much need for people nowadays, with automation in so many facets of business. The world could get by quite well with a million, let alone the seven billion currently in existence. This is the sobering reality foreseen by the elite, such as Trump, Putin, and Xi. It is my grim prediction for the future. I do not see a future with populous countries, but a future of war and strife, nuclear exchanges, massive pollution (including radioactive), dictatorships, and overall a long-term reduction in the global population. A "Mad Max" future.

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

The Daily Stormer


The ugly troll behind the Daily Stormer, a Trump cheerleader, imagines he has a monopoly on ultra-violence, hate and psychological warfare. The truth is, everyone keeps the full enchilada in reserve. The only thing keeping the masses from indulging their base instincts is a noble aspiration for a higher state of existence. We do not wish to live as base animals. It is commendable aspiration and was difficult to achieve. He argues we should revert to insects. To see the world in terms of skin color is stupid. He thinks his words are impressive because they are extreme. The reality is, the majority of mankind could say and do all the horrid things he thinks he has the sole rights to. The majority could do far worse than him. Want to be like ISIL, worse than dogs? Want to be worse than ISIL? If he were on the receiving end of what he advocates, he would change his tune in a few seconds, reverting back to the Noam Chomsky-reading liberal he said he used to be. All his hatemongering blather is just a smokescreen for his insecurities. Not impressed.

Back in the day, there were similar creatures in Europe. Some committed suicide, while others were shot or hung, after the war. There is meticulous documentation about their activities. He is parroting them. The forces he draws upon are not congenial for human beings. It is in their nature to betray the summoner.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Bonds Suck So Bad


I just can't get over how bad bonds suck right now. Unless interest rates increase by 2 to 3%, bonds are all, every one of them, a bad deal, and high-yield most of all, with its pathetic 5% yield. Look, inflation is on the rise, okay? The Fed's quarter-point touch up doesn't do the trick. Prices are creeping higher, and the usual Christmas bargains just aren't to be found.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Win at All Costs


Win at all costs dismantles all the rules. It is easy to win a game with no rules. Just grab the prize and walk off. Done. Trump is win at all costs. He is going to break a lot of rules. Bull in a china shop ain't in it. I predict a war somewhere along the lines, probably with China, and probably of the trade-war variety, with some hot-fire traded on the high seas. He has stocked his administration with generals for a reason. There is going to be a lot of nail-biting and a lot of losers, too, among those heavily dependent upon imports from China. They probably deserve to suffer, seeing as how they sold out American workers. I hope Trump does do a trade war with China. That would be just the thing to jump-start the manufacturing base here in the U.S. Let the big boys sweat a bit, but make them bring back those jobs. I wonder whether Trump can pull that off. Sometimes the Fool is possessed by Divine Light. He blunders and farts around, and is really a Fool, but actually wins in the end.

Monday, December 12, 2016

Federal Bankruptcy?


Trump presided over bankruptcies in the past, and I see no reason to assume he will change colors overnight. Trump plans to do the classical Republican shenanigans: cut taxes while at the same time increasing spending. It is just like if I decided to quit working and just live off my credit card, while dining out every night and buying a couple new cars. That is the easy way to spur economic growth. Trump loves easy fixes. Who cares about the future? Enjoy today. That is the Republican way. Reagan did it first, then Bush, and now Trump. All of them getting high at the wheel as the ship gets progressively loaded down with debt. What is it now, over twenty trillion? Remember, Trump wants to spend more on defense, not less. That means more new planes, tanks, and ships, all of which we apparently need in order to keep China in check.

Meanwhile, Trump antagonizes our chief debt holder, China. For better or worse, China holds our national debt. If tensions rise between the two nations, as we have every reason to expect they will, the United States may default on its national debt for the first time in modern history. Now, Trump has defaulted many a time before, and this would be in character. What will happen is that no one will want to buy U.S. bonds, and anyone holding them is going to be holding Monopoly money. That would include retirees, dear old grandma and the like. There will be a lot of collateral damage, and suddenly the U.S. will have no way to meet obligations such as Social Security and so forth. There will be unhappy people gathering in the streets.

Trump may be cunning, but he is not half as smart as he thinks he is, and he is going to find that global politics is a lot tougher than it seemed at first. There is a reason that Putin backed Trump, and that reason is not to help America or the American people.

Predictions: the federal minimum wage stays the same or is abolished altogether. 2017 inflation rate of 3.5%, 2018 inflation rate of 7%, 2019 inflation rate of 11%, and 2020 inflation rate of 14%. Bonds look like a poor investment right now. Pollution gets worse. The capital spending that Trump envisions will not actually improve anything in the country. He is going to build a wall and spend more on military gadgets for overseas adventures. Spending on scientific research will stagnate, with the one exception of weapons research. The infrastructure will remain as it is, although prison building will expand and become increasingly privatized. Marijuana will become illegal again nationwide, if Trump's Attorney General has his way. Trump is going to put a lot more people in prison as part of the traditional Republican "tough on crime" thing. Most of the new people in prison will be for non-violent offenses like marijuana. The largest per capita prison population in the world is just going to get larger and may even double. The Trump Presidency will be all about culture wars, stocking the Supreme Court with right-wingers, and expanding the military and doing a lot of bombing missions against third world nations to show everybody that Trump stands tall. There probably is going to be some hot fire traded between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea as well, and then an unexpected peace mission resulting in symbolic, empty "concessions" from China that make Trump look good while changing nothing. Trump is all about appearances. All he wants is to look good in the moment. If a world leader understands that, as Putin does, then it is easy to deal with Trump. Give America nothing but a kick in the teeth, but lie and agree with Trump and say the things that make him look good. That is all you have to do with Trump.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Of Course


Of course, our government offers poor management of the nation. The two candidates for President are inadequate to the challenge. They seek the office out of personal ambition, which is improper, even base. The same could likely be said for many other candidates for many other offices throughout our Republic and for many positions, whether political, military or corporate.

Are either Trump or Clinton ready for the unique scientific and political challenges of the present? Global warming, financial uncertainty, unemployment, terrorism, Russia, China, North Korea and Iran (the Axis of Evil)? I doubt it. Do they bring new ideas to the table? No, they are orthodoxy.

Many intelligent people do not believe global warming will be resolved by human beings. They view the approaching apocalypse as inevitable. I count myself among them. I do not think that human beings are capable of dealing with the threat of global warming. We are too selfish, short-sighted, suspicious of others. Thus, disaster looms. The federal government foolishly, mindlessly subsidizes development in coastal regions doomed to be devoured by the oceans. Meanwhile, we squash bugs in Syria, Iraq, Aghanistan. Funny thing about bugs. They just keep reproducing. Meanwhile, the treasury is drained on a continual basis, and we become more indebted to China.

I know intelligent people who will not vote for Hillary Clinton or Trump because they see their faults and do not excuse them and see no value in pragmatism. Pragmatism is not sexy, but is boring and depressing. Our system is flawed. Winner-takes-all is a real problem. People will vote for the Greens, for Libertarians, for protest candidates. The system is not capable of processing their intentions.

Our Founding Fathers had good intentions, but ultimately failed us. Their deeds are regarded by the masses as carved in granite, never to be altered, and yet they failed. The system they designed cannot endure. It is being tested. It is doomed.

Global warming occurs, and our national debt increases with no end in sight, and many people are either unemployed or under-employed. Where are the jobs? Again and again, where are the jobs?

It is difficult to be optimistic about the future in the long-term.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

The Best Way to Help the Police


The best way that the world can help the respective police forces of every nation is to abandon the notion that human beings are suited to drive motor vehicles. We are not. Millions of accidents confirm this. Driverless vehicles are the way to go. There will be no need for law enforcement to squander time and resources on monitoring speeds or adherence to any other traffic laws if cars are computerized, networked (communicating with each other) and monitored by a central server. We need to stop driving cars yesterday. Humans are lousy drivers, because they want to drink, do drugs, play on their smart phones, change the radio station, talk with friends, brood over things at work, and argue with their spouses or children when they should be paying attention to the road.

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Nothing Matters


To know that nothing matters is a liberation. To think that things matter betrays attachment to things. Non-attachment is the way. If one lives in a world of constant change, then a simple path presents itself, to embrace the change and flow with it.

We think things matter because it is a prerequisite of living as an animal. Breathing matters. Feeding matters. To think that these things matter is very useful to an animal. The habit of mind can become all-encompassing, leading one to believe that even little things matter, such as a parking space that one has grown accustomed to or a brand of candy carried by the grocery store. We forget the ultimate reality, which is that nothing matters.

On this planet, there are people now. They were not there in the past. They will not be there in the future. No record will be preserved of their existence. This is a simple concept, but difficult to accept. The Universe does not play favorites.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Trump


The grinning crocodile, Trump, made a none-too-subtle remark recently that gun owners might assassinate Hillary Clinton, merely because she favors modest and sensible additional controls over firearm sales, such as banning assault rifles and so on. The gun control lobby in the U.S. is completely insane. There is no need to explain. Just research for about half an hour, and it should be obvious.

Let us examine Trump's thinly veiled threat against Hillary in cold blood. Let us say Hillary is gone. Her replacement would also beat Trump and might actually prove a stronger candidate. That is why Hillary is perfectly safe. I do not fear any assassination attempt against her. The ones to fear for are the likes of Martin Luther King, Jr., who gave a better speech than any human being in living history. The evil-doers knew he was irreplaceable. That is why they murdered him. They will not touch a hair on Hillary's head, because she is replaceable, and what is more, the replacement might be better.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

The Model vs. the Ideal


I compare myself to the ideal, as conceived by me, and come up short. I know there is room for improvement, in areas such as memory and intelligence, and suspect that improvements are the name of the eugenics game being played by modern scientists around the globe. Indeed, who cares about workers and their rights, because the future won't need workers, or at least not as many of them. If H. Sapiens improves (evolves), becoming stronger, more robust, more agile, smarter, and longer-lived, then the world could get by quite well with a tiny fraction of the existing population of workers. How many living people are really required to run a society? That is open to debate, given the emergence of automation and robotics, as well as the possibility of improving human DNA. If future people become capable of living thousands of years or forever, then that is a huge advantage over current models of people. If future people will be ten times smarter than me, then I suppose that people like me can be dispensed with. Of course, that is what has always happened on this planet. H. Sapiens is only the latest iteration of many different models of the walking ape. Maybe there will be a successor created not by evolution but by the laboratory and market forces.

This seems to be the thinking, or rather the deeper, unspoken, secret thinking, behind trends in the world. Technology, philosophy, and economic forces point in the direction I have described. It is not necessarily wrong, even if it is unpleasant and frightening. If the end result is a better H. Sapiens, then perhaps sacrifices need to be made, in terms of quality of life or even life itself. I don't like it, but that seems to be the way that the world is headed, whether I like it or not. I would hope for a gentler transition, but I think that may not be part of the program. One can't count on stability. Stability is a bonus, a prize denied to many of our ancestors.

If I am fortunate, I will survive to an appropriate old age, such as eighty or so, and then cash in my chips, well-liked and well-remembered by those who know me. I hope the economy does not crash, or war break out, or something foolish like that, but one never knows, with Trumps and Putins and Khameinis and Kim Il-Jongs running around in the world stirring up trouble with their nuclear bombs, missiles and tanks, and nasty threats and disregard for others. Many people seem to think that hatred and warfare is the way, and that peace is for sissies, and morality is for losers. The warrior ethos still holds great appeal for wannabe candidates to Valhalla. This may be a fatal flaw in H. Sapiens, given the capabilities of our weapons. Hatred and warfare, so much of it, reinforced over generations. To recover from traumatic violence may require more than one lifetime, and cycles tend to repeat and reinforce.

If I am not fortunate, then that is okay too. I think the world will go on turning.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Yes to Tariffs


I do support the idea of tariffs to protect American jobs. Too much is made in China, which seeks to conquer the world, beginning with its backyard. China will soon eclipse the U.S. in economic might, and then the military will follow. We need to add twenty to fifty per cent to the cost of goods manufactured overseas, to encourage companies to manufacture goods in the U.S. If this results in a trade war, then the U.S. will win that war, because it is the largest consumer economy in the world at this time. Another idea would be to include all of North and South America in a development zone that is free trade, and then place a tariff on goods outside of the New World. Just about everything can be produced in the New World. We need to take an interest in our neighbors and friends, rather than enriching future military adversaries like Russia, Iran and China.

The idea that one day, America will be able to compete with China on jobs is ludicrous. China has zero protections for workers and the environment. They will always be cheaper. Either you want an America where your child will grow up to flip burgers at the Waffle Goon, or else you want an America where future generations can get decent jobs that pay well enough to enjoy a good quality of life. It seems pretty simple to me. The only people that benefit from so-called "free trade" are the stockholders in the big corporations. Workers don't see any benefits.

I do realize that slapping tariffs on China would result in a drastic increase in prices for all computer parts and all kinds of other goods. My purchasing power would go down, in the short term. There would be a long period of pain, maybe even a whole lifetime. That would be a price I am willing to pay. One has to think, not just about today, but about fifty years from now. What will America be like? People just don't think about anything other than themselves and today. That is why America is in the situation it is in, where good jobs are hard to find.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Hadrian


This prediction concerns not the future, but what remains unknown in the past. After watching a BBC documentary of the Roman Emperor Hadrian, I have the uneasy feeling that he slew his beloved Antinuous. The Emperor Hadrian's ego was out-sized and improper, smacking of hubris. His innumerable statues and monuments give testimony that their patron valued himself too highly. Towards life's end, he became increasingly paranoid. And he was terrible toward the Jews, making their rebellion inevitable. I believe he certainly had to have been capable of fratricide. Perhaps he was one of the so-called good emperors, if "good" means nothing more than effective. He was not a very good man, though. What emperor was?

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Calling the 2016 Election

It is obvious Hillary Clinton will be the next President. I find it so obvious that I don't even feel the need to explain. I'm far from alone in seeing this. Probably everyone with a functioning brain sees the same outcome.

I prefer Bernie Sanders, but perhaps he is too old and obscure. He does not enjoy name recognition, unlike Clinton. I don't think Bernie can beat Clinton at this time. Young voters prefer Bernie, but young people are apathetic and don't tend to vote. I see grayhairs when I go to the polls. Young people stay at home playing video games or whatever. That is why the country is in the jam it is in.

I will vote for Hillary Clinton, because the alternative, Trump, would be unpleasant. I think Trump may even win some televised debates, because he's a seasoned TV personality, and what seems to matter is style rather than substance. Trump has a more flamboyant style than Hillary Clinton. Even if Trump wins all the debates, he will not win the election. I will be surprised if he carries the white vote.

Guns WIll Be Obsolete

By 2100, guns will be obsolete, because the purpose of guns, slaying humans, will no longer serve a purpose.

Humans will cease to inhabit their corporeal forms. They will, instead, exist in data. We are just a series of numbers, like anything else. By digitizing our personalities, we can exist eternally and endlessly replicate through cloning. Thus, slaying a single clone will not have quite the effect that gun violence does today. Not only will guns be obsolete, but all forms of violence, which will be diminished in status from a great evil to an annoying rudeness. Once one body dies, another takes its place.

The great question is who will be cloned, and what sorts of people will they be? If history is any guide, they will probably be a better sort of people.

The physical body is such an obvious horror in so many ways that people will eagerly embrace their liberation from its cruel tyranny. In virtual reality, one can exist in a perfect heaven of one's own construction. This may indeed offer the solution to overpopulation. Given a choice, most people would choose to die immediately, if guaranteed eternal life in virtual reality, because millions of years in virtual Heaven is better than a short span of years in a form subject to pain and suffering. There only need be a few physical avatars tending to the needs of the computer system, ensuring continuous power and smooth operation.

Monday, December 22, 2014

America's Unlikely Defenders

The most devout guardians of our homeland are North Korea and Iran, or had better be, regardless of their bellicose rhetoric to the contrary, because were we ever attacked by nuclear arms, then there is no question but that N. Korea and Iran would cease to be inhabited by human beings within twenty-four hours, and that would be right, and the American public would approve of that response. The idiots heading those incompetent dictatorships may delude themselves all they want, but the instinct for self-preservation may yet stay their hand, as anyone can guess what lies in store for them in the final analysis.

When dealing with such regimes, they are guilty until proven innocent beyond any shadow of a doubt. And even if they are not guilty of a particular crime, they are already proven guilty of other crimes and deserve what they get.
techlorebyigor is my personal journal for ideas & opinions