Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Syria

The Syrian regime is really horrible and there are no two ways about that. The stories I read in the media leave me with the impression that Syria is run mafia-style by a bunch of bandits, and Assad is their chieftain. Possibly the Alawites were in ancient history a tribe of bandits. At any rate, they are now. Their relationship with the rest of their neighbors has certainly changed for the worse, and I think they are going to have difficult times in the future no matter what happens to their regime, whether it survives or not.

All that said, I find it difficult to get enthusiastic about intervening in Syria. We already did our usual number in Libya, and I don't see the Libyans clamoring to pay for any of the costs of the intervention. Mercenary armies traditionally have been paid for their services. We get paid nothing. Iraq's gratitude is laughable. How Iraq turns out remains to be seen. I find it difficult to have much hope for Afghanistan either. The trouble is with the people. They are not like us. They are not educated. They are extremely superstitious. They don't share Western-style values. Eventually a strong man always arises among those people. They have not had a republic in a thousand years. Where is their Thomas Jefferson, their James Madison, their George Washington? Once we leave, then they will revert to their old ways in time. That's my prediction. We are regarded as aliens, intruders, foreigners.

Russia supplied more arms to the detested Syrian regime recently. I imagine the Russians rationalize things this way. The whole Middle East, with the exception of Israel and maybe Turkey, is just a bunch of authoritarian regimes. The dust hasn't settled in Egypt and Libya and other countries yet. Torture and executions for spurious reasons are fairly commonplace throughout the Middle East. So if the regime falls in Syria, then Syria may become more efficient. It may become wealthier. But freedom? Civil rights? That's difficult to imagine. What Russia really fears is the Arabs coalescing into a coherent union, like the EU. They like the Syrian regime because it plays ball with them and does favors for them and keeps the Sunni majority in line.

For all the talk in the media about a civil war in Syria, I think the regime is going to endure and survive. It will be a little bit weaker, but it will survive just as the Iranian regime survived the turmoil of 2011. Iran and Syria have far too many ignorant and violent thugs that are in possession of gold and guns. I think that any ethical person in those countries does not really have much hope to lead a productive life, because to do so would be to serve as a tool of an unethical regime, which would be a violation of ethics. Eventually an ethical person would run afoul of the regime. Those two countries, Iran and Syria, will be bastions of violence and ignorance for generations to come.

It is depressing to think of Iran with nuclear bombs. The U.S. is not really in a position economically to begin another war, thanks to Bush's blunders, and all signs point to our steering clear of military conflict. I think what will really happen is that, if Iran hurts anybody with a nuclear weapon, then all life will be annihilated within Iran and possibly their neighbors and all of their allies. It will not be Mutual Assured Destruction, but Assured Destruction at any rate. That is why China and Russia don't care whether Iran gets bombs. Both of those countries already have sufficient deterrent. They assume that the Iranian leadership is not insane. Whether that is a safe assumption remains to be seen.
by igor 04:20 8 replies by igor 09:32 6 comments

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